Republicans had no plans to spend big on the U.S. Senate race in South Carolina.
They didn't need to.
U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, in his fourth term, had survived reelection challenges in cycles past — even against well-funded candidates. In June, sitting on a war chest of millions of dollars, he deployed about $18 million in combination with outside groups to stave off a six-person primary. And he was well on his way to cruise to election victory in November.
Lindsey Graham's sudden death in July at age 71 changed all of that.
Weeks before Election Day, national Republican groups are spending and redirecting hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars to South Carolina, a reliably red state, for his sister Darline Graham. And President Donald Trump will hold an Upstate rally next week in large part to boost turnout for Graham in a region she lost in the special primary and runoff.
A political novice, Graham is seeking to keep her late brother's seat for a full six-year term as she faces well-funded Democrat Dr. Annie Andrews in a year where some voters have soured on President Donald Trump, the Iran war he started and the subsequent steep gas prices that have compounded affordability issues this midterm.
Now Democrats, and some Republicans, are out loud asking: Could this be the year Democrats win a statewide race in a state that they haven't done since 2006?
"In general, how fired up voters are about affordability will help Democrats in the state," said Scott Huffmon, a Winthrop University political science professor who runs the Winthrop Poll. "It's really not incredibly likely to change an outcome. That said, it's not beyond the realm of possibility."
South Carolina Democrats are clinging to that possibility.
Graham, a former commissioner of the South Carolina Commission for the Blind, wasn't well-known statewide when Gov. Henry McMaster tapped the Lexington County resident in July to serve the remainder of her late brother's term.
Behind the scenes, Republicans were prepping for a competitive primary to fill the seat that had not been wide open since the early 2000s after the death of longtime Sen. Strom Thurmond.
Names were already popping up publicly, from Congressmen Russell Fry to Ralph Norman, who ran unsuccessfully this summer for governor.
Then came Trump's endorsement for Graham, shocking many Republicans who assumed Trump might stay out of the GOP race.
Graham went on to lead a 10-person special election primary, later beating Norman in the late August primary runoff by 5 points — seen as helped by Trump's visit to Republican voter-rich Myrtle Beach and close to a million dollars in spending from his super PAC.
But as Graham pivots to Election Day, Democrats say they see an open door that has given the minority party a large enough edge to call the race competitive.
They point to GOP fractures from the special primary, when Norman, who swept the Upstate, lost to Graham in the runoff, triggering a grassroots "write-in Ralph" campaign.
Andrews told reporters this month that she has spoken with members of Norman's family, including after Trump referred to her using an anti-transgender slur in a post to his Truth Social account.
"I have talked to some of Ralph Norman’s family members, particularly today (Oct. 6) about what the president said to me on social media and how that really mirrors how Ralph Norman was treated during that primary," Andrews said earlier this month in Columbia following a stop on her healthcare plan tour. "This has been such a wild campaign, but we’ve been waking up every day and putting in the work."
The "write-in Ralph" campaign is not the only factor giving Democrats hope in a state Trump won by 18 points in 2024.
Reports about close polls and ratings changes under the umbrella of unfavorable attitudes toward the incumbent administration, inflation and the Iran war have been a regular talking point on the trail by state and national Democrats potentially eyeing a presidential run in 2028.
Antjuan Seawright, a South Carolina-based Democratic strategist who runs Blueprint Strategies, said he's as optimistic as ever.
"In a competitive general election, you have to bring along not only your base but independent voters and people who did not support you in a primary — that's called a broad coalition." Seawright said. "Darline Graham has not demonstrated that she can do that, however, and Andrews is demonstrating that she can put together a unique coalition that will make her so competitive, that Republicans are prioritizing, of all of the places on the map, they're having to prioritize South Carolina."
Andrews, who developed a national following after she previously unsuccessfully ran for the 1st Congressional District, has raised millions of dollars for her Senate campaign,
It's still far short of the whopping $140 million Jaime Harrison raised when he challenged Lindsey Graham in 2020 but lost by 10 points.
Unlike 2020, Trump is not on the ballot.
He is, however, telling voters as recent as a Thursday night tele-rally for Graham and other Republicans to behave like he is, hoping it boosts midterm turnout.
Huffmon said Democrats will have to do more than persuade Republicans to vote for Andrews. They'll also have to identify independent voters, who may avoid selecting straight-party ticket at the ballot box — an option 60% and nearly 62% of Republicans selected in 2024 and 2022, respectively.
"You're going to have a low two digits at best when you're talking about independents, and they are also the least likely to turn out," Huffmon said. "So, you have got to find a way to grab their attention because they're just as affected by the economy, affordability — all of these things as anyone else. But they're not always as tuned in to politics as the hardcore partisans."
Some South Carolina Republicans say they believe the Senate race, which includes two third-party candidates on the ballot, will be close.
As close, they say, as the 2010 governor's race, when then-state Rep. Nikki Haley beat former Sen. Vincent Sheheen by 4.5 points.
Meanwhile, polling in the statewide governor's race shows Republican Attorney General Alan Wilson up by 10 points to Democratic state Rep. Jermaine Johnson.
"I’m concerned for her. My victory is not assured. Her loss is not assured. There's no assurances," Wilson told SCETV last week about Graham. "But I do believe it's going to be a very good year in South Carolina for our ticket, across the ticket and down ballot. I know that there are some headwinds now, some externalities we can't control, but I do believe we're going to do well."
On a dreary Friday afternoon earlier this month in Charleston as the city braced for the remnants of Hurricane Isaias, spirits were high inside Halls Chophouse on King Street where Graham supporters gathered for a midday fundraiser.
By Graham's side was Senate Majority Leader John Thune and the state's now senior Sen. Tim Scott, who chairs the Senate Republican fundraising arm, the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
"She’s (Andrews) had a little bit of an advantage because it’s my understanding that 84% of her donors are from out of state," Graham said. "So the Democrats are pouring in money to South Carolina to take this seat. I’m out doing fundraisers the best I can."
On Friday, the Graham campaign reported a $2.4 million haul among two entities during the last two months of the third quarter. The campaign said her fundraising ramped up in early August after her brother's death in July.
The report follows $5 million in spending by the Senate Leadership Fund to help Graham.
In Charleston, Scott refuted claims the NRSC, an official political party committee, had pulled resources out of neighboring battleground states Georgia and North Carolina, where polling suggests Democrats are poised to win.
"We have 10 toss up races across the country, we do not consider South Carolina a toss-up seat," Scott said. "The good news is Darline has become a fundraising machine and we’re asking her to give us money."
Democrats say they aren't yet convinced.
"I think it's a 45-45 jump ball, with 10% of the people politically unhoused or politically homeless who are looking for a home," Seawright said. "I think the difference between elections before and elections now is that voters are actually holding the brand and the people in charge accountable for their material well-being."
Under the moss-draped live oaks outside of the Colleton County Courthouse in Walterboro on a warm October morning, Andrews touted her data center plan and expressed optimism in her campaign.
"I’m really excited for our people-powered movement that we’ve been building that very clearly is not just for Democrats," Andrews said. "It’s for Democrats, it’s for Independents, it’s for Republicans who realize that this Senate seat belongs to the people of South Carolina — not to one particular family or one particular political party."
In the weeks before Election Day, Andrews has dotted the state in campaign stops and fundraising events, from a nearly 300-person event in Graniteville to visits with voters on the coast.
Graham, meanwhile, is now back on the campaign trail after the Senate took recess, giving her an opportunity to hit the trail and rally voters.
National Democrats who are potential 2028 presidential candidates, such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, have also been holding events in concert with the state Democratic Party to rally the base and boost down-ballot candidates.
Beshear, who heads the Democratic Governors Association, recently visited with volunteers at Nancy Lacore’s campaign headquarters in Mount Pleasant.
Lacore, a retired vice admiral who was fired last year by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, is the Democratic nominee looking to succeed 1st District Congresswoman Nancy Mace.
The red-leaning district briefly flipped blue in 2018, when Democrat Joe Cunningham squeaked out a win. Subsequent redistricting efforts at the Statehouse have made the seat safer for Republicans, but the race continues to become more competitive.
"Donald Trump won Kentucky by 30 points, so I’m living breathing proof that Democrats can win anywhere. We should be fighting everywhere," Beshear, the two-term governor, said. "They said Kentucky was too red. On Election Day, we won by 5,500 votes. All that came from our field program."
With so many factors at play in the election, Alex Stroman, a former state GOP executive director, said Democrats will need to do more than to rely on hope.
The last Democrat who won statewide was Jim Rex in 2006.
But that was for state superintendent of education, he said.
"It would probably take at least 6% of voters going third party for Annie Andrews to have a real shot," Stroman said. "To me, this race looks a lot like the 2010 governor’s race. It could be closer than we’ve historically seen, but that doesn’t necessarily mean a different outcome. Being a Democrat running statewide in South Carolina is a lot like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football."
Maayan Schechter contributed to this report.
