Looking at the atmosphere right now, it is completely void of any tropical development and we are on the verge of breaking a massive historical record!
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has produced only five named storms and zero hurricanes. If a hurricane doesn’t form by Sept.11, this year will officially become the latest hurricane season in recorded history, since the modern satellite era began in 1966. The current record-holders are Hurricane Gustav in 2002 and Hurricane Humberto in 2013, both of which formed on Sept.11.
While we entered the season expecting an average or slightly below-average year, the sheer lack of activity has stunned many. We can thank a few huge atmospheric shield factors for "squashing" storm development:
- A Record-Strength "El Niño": Over in the Pacific Ocean, El Niño conditions have been holding exceptionally strong. This massive weather pattern creates heavy wind shear over the Atlantic. High wind shear essentially acts like a giant fan, ripping apart the tops of developing tropical waves before they can organize into hurricanes.
- Saharan Dust & Dry Air: Waves of dry, dusty air blowing off the coast of Africa have blanketed the Main Development Region. Hurricanes need rich moisture to thrive, and this dry air acts like a blanket, suffocating potential storms.
- Cooler Ocean Pockets: Pockets of cooler-than-normal water temperatures along parts of the Western Atlantic and Main Development Region have further limited the necessary fuel storms rely on.
The National Hurricane Center expects the basin to stay quiet over the next seven days, and models suggest this powerhouse El Niño will stick around well through the fall and into winter.
Never turn your back on the tropics. The official season doesn't end until November 30th. Even in a quiet or below-average year, it only takes one storm hitting the right area to change the entire story of a season.
Keep your hurricane kits ready, keep your eyes on the horizon and stay with South Carolina ETV and Public Radio to keep you and your family updated on the latest, but for now, enjoy the peace and quiet across the Atlantic!