Most of South Carolina is expected to remain in an unsettled weather pattern during the second half of the workweek as the remnants of a tropical disturbance and a nearby frontal boundary bring increased rain chances across the state.
Forecast models indicate widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms beginning on Thursday, with around 70% of the state expected to see precipitation.
Rain chances are expected to increase event further on Friday, with about 90% coverage before the wet weather moves offshore over the weekend.
A major factor in the forecast is a tropical disturbance in the western Gulf that is helping to create a complex weather setup for the Southeast.
The National Hurricane Center has issued advisories for the disturbance, officially designating it as Potential Tropical Cyclone One. However, whether the system strengthens into the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season has little impact on the overall forecast.
Forecast models remain divided on whether the system will organize enough to become a tropical cyclone and receive the name of Arthur, but regardless of its classification, significant tropical moisture will continue to push inland across the Southeast.
The greatest flood threat in South Carolina is expected during the evening commute on Thursday and into Friday, which coincides with the Juneteenth holiday.
Communities across the western Upstate and the Savannah River Valley could see rainfall totals between 1 and 4 inches, with locally higher amounts possible where thunderstorms repeatedly train over the same area.
Elsewhere across the state, widespread rainfall totals of around 1 inch are expected, which will beneficial considering nearly 98% of South Carolina remains in a drought.
In addition to the threat for torrential rainfall, an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out, especially on Friday as the disturbance interacts with an approaching front.
The primary concerns within the stronger storms will be isolated damaging wind gusts and frequent lightning.
Over the weekend, drier air is forecast to return as the tropical moisture moves offshore, leading to mostly sunny skies.
The timing of the tropical disturbance coincides with the climatological average date for the first named storm of the Atlantic basin hurricane season, which is around June 20.
