Wildfire activity across South Carolina is expected to remain near normal levels through the coming months, helped in part by widespread rainfall during the late spring and early summer.
According to the latest outlook from the National Interagency Fire Center, wildfire activity is expected to remain at typical levels through at least September.
The South Carolina Forestry Commission reports that around 1,400 wildfires occur annually across the state, damaging around 14,000 acres.
The Palmetto State was among several regions that ended May with a 30-day precipitation anomaly exceeding 200% of normal values.
The increased rainfall helped reduce wildfire concerns heading into the summer, but despite the improvement in drought conditions, some pockets of dryness still remain.
Forecast models suggest that additional rainfall in June may help ease lingering precipitation deficits, but it is unlikely to eliminate drought conditions entirely.
Over the next several months, climate patterns originating in the Pacific are expected to significantly influence weather conditions across North America.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or what is commonly known as ENSO, is expected to transition from a neutral phase into an El Niño status.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center says there is even a sizeable chance that a strong El Niño could emerge by late fall and winter.
Historically, El Niño events often produce wetter-than-average conditions across much of the Southeast during the cooler months of the year. However, weather conditions during the late summer and early fall can vary significantly.
The latest wildfire outlook raises concerns about drought conditions during the August and September timeframe and warns that fire conditions could become more elevated if tropical activity remains muted.
Tropical systems often produce needed rainfall for South Carolina and the Southeast at the conclusion of the warm season's nearly daily thunderstorm activity.
Hurricane outlooks suggest the season could be less active than normal, lending credence to the possibility that tropical moisture may be hard to find across the region.
Elsewhere around the country, the western Gulf Coast, Rockies and Pacific Northwest are expected to see increased fire activity during the summer and early fall.
