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Why June tropical cyclone strikes are uncommon in South Carolina

Satellite photo of Tropical Storm Danny in June 2021.
NOAA
Satellite photo of Tropical Storm Danny in June 2021.

While the Atlantic basin hurricane season is underway, some time periods are more active than others for residents of the Palmetto State.

Historically, tropical cyclone impacts during the first month of the season are relatively rare in South Carolina.

According to historical records, only three tropical cyclones have made landfall in South Carolina during June, with the most recent event occurring in 2021.

During the 2021 season, Tropical Storm Danny made landfall just south of Charleston as a minimal tropical storm, producing only minor damage.

Other June landfalls include an unnamed tropical storm in 1979 and the state's only direct June hurricane landfall occurred in 1867.

Tracks of tropical cyclones since 1851.
NOAA
Tracks of tropical cyclones since 1851.

Notably, no tropical cyclone that has made landfall during June in South Carolina has been stronger than a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

During the early summer, the waters of the Gulf and the Caribbean Sea are typically more favorable for development than across the open tropical Atlantic.

Because many early-season tropical storms and hurricanes form south and west of South Carolina, the region can experience indirect impacts from the cyclones after they make landfall elsewhere.

The remnants of the systems often produce heavy rainfall, gusty winds and an increased threat of tornadoes, despite being hundreds of miles away from where the cyclone originally came ashore.

On average, the Atlantic basin sees only one named storm form during June, with the typical formation date occurring around June 20.

As the calendar progresses deeper into hurricane season, areas that are climatologically favorable for tropical development expand eastward into the tropical Atlantic, increasing the local threat.

As a result, August and September historically account for the majority of tropical cyclone landfalls in South Carolina and much of the Eastern Seaboard.

South Carolina tropical cyclone landfalls by month.
South Carolina tropical cyclone landfalls by month.

Impacts are typically more frequent during the La Niña and neutral phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation than during El Niño years, such as what the 2026 season is heading into.

Historical data since 1851 shows that a total of around 45 tropical cyclones have made landfall along South Carolina's coastline.

Of the nearly four dozen systems, 25 were hurricanes when they reached the state, but only four were rated as major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 115 mph.

The strongest and the most historic of the major events was Hurricane Hugo, which struck South Carolina on Sept. 22, 1989, as a Category 4 cyclone.

At least 86 fatalities were attributed to Hugo, and damage at the time was estimated at more than $7 billion.

Satellite of Hurricane Hugo making landfall on September 22, 1989.
NOAA
Satellite of Hurricane Hugo making landfall on September 22, 1989.